Forecast of sea-rail throughput of Xiamen Port based on improved grey prediction model

Huiyi Tang; Jingbin Shi; Xiaojia Liu

doi:10.1117/12.2645862

23 November 2022 Forecast of sea-rail throughput of Xiamen Port based on improved grey prediction model

Huiyi Tang, Jingbin Shi, Xiaojia Liu

Proceedings Volume 12302, Seventh International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (ICECTT 2022); 123023Z (2022) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2645862
Event: Seventh International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (ICECTT 2022), 2022, Guangzhou, China

Abstract

As an important hub port along the southeast coast of China, Xiamen Port provides strong support for the development of regional trade, and the sea-rail intermodal transport has strong potential in port consolidation and hinterland expansion. This paper uses the grey GM (1, 1) model and Markov model to build a prediction model for the sea-rail intermodal throughput of Xiamen port, and conducts statistical analysis on the sea-rail intermodal throughput data of Xiamen port from 2014 to 2021. The results show that the average relative error of the improved model is reduced from 15.66% to 6.25%, which greatly improves the accuracy of the improved model and increases the credibility of the model of sea-rail intermodal throughput of Xiamen Port. This paper predicts the development trend of the sea-rail intermodal throughput of Xiamen port in the next three years, providing a certain basis for the construction of the sea-rail intermodal transport market in Xiamen.

Citation Download Citation

Huiyi Tang, Jingbin Shi, and Xiaojia Liu "Forecast of sea-rail throughput of Xiamen Port based on improved grey prediction model", Proc. SPIE 12302, Seventh International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (ICECTT 2022), 123023Z (23 November 2022); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2645862

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