A system dynamics-based risk assessment model for shipping in ice regions

Yalei Niu; Si Su; Xun Li; Yi Wang; XingYu Han; Feng Qu

doi:10.1117/12.3039872

28 August 2024 A system dynamics-based risk assessment model for shipping in ice regions

Yalei Niu, Si Su, Xun Li, Yi Wang, XingYu Han, Feng Qu

Proceedings Volume 13251, Ninth International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (ICECTT 2024); 132511U (2024) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3039872
Event: 9th International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (ICECTT 2024), 2024, Guilin, China

Abstract

Technological advances and changing climatic conditions have ushered in a new era of "Silk Road on Ice" (SRI). However, the growing popularity of SRI and the isolated, pristine environment of the polar ice regions have exacerbated the risks for conventional ice shipping. As shipping risk, especially in the Arctic ice region, involves environmental, economic, technological and managerial aspects, most existing risk assessments and methodologies do not incorporate specific Arctic risk factors to estimate shipping risk from a systemic perspective. This paper proposes a System Dynamics (SD) model to simultaneously incorporate these combined factors into the risk assessment of ice-area shipping, focusing on elucidating the factors shaping the risk of ice-area shipping and the various interlinked responses and feedbacks among the factors. The results show that the proposed risk assessment tool for shipping in icy regions can provide decision-making for advance planning of voyages and thus further improve the reliability of shipping route planning through ice.

(2024) Published by SPIE. Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

Citation Download Citation

Yalei Niu, Si Su, Xun Li, Yi Wang, XingYu Han, and Feng Qu "A system dynamics-based risk assessment model for shipping in ice regions", Proc. SPIE 13251, Ninth International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (ICECTT 2024), 132511U (28 August 2024); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3039872

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KEYWORDS

Ice

Risk assessment

Safety

Systems modeling

Visibility

Situational awareness sensors

Visibility through fog

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