Freight traffic of civil aviation has developed rapidly because of its advantages of fast transportation speed and high safety. The fluctuation of freight traffic of civil aviation has brought many challenges to air traffic scheduling. If the freight traffic of civil aviation volume can be accurately predicted, the difficulty of air traffic scheduling will be reduced and the transportation efficiency of air cargo will be improved. The current prediction model can’t properly respond to the impact of emergencies. And it is not sensitive to the trend variations caused by policies, epidemics and other factors. In this paper, based on the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and linear regression model (LR), a hybrid ARIMA-LR model is proposed by using an improved Bayesian combined model. Through the prediction of the actual freight traffic of civil aviation volume, it is found that the hybrid ARIMA-LR model can not only better adapt to the changes caused by emergencies, but also have higher overall prediction accuracy than the ARIMA model and LR model. The three indicators of mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the hybrid ARIMA-LR model are 1.06,29.02,0.03 lower than that of the ARIMA model; compared with the LR model, it is reduced by 3.00,92.00,0.06.
Precedent studies have only qualitatively assessed the comfort of defecation, which restricted the design and development of new toilet appliances. Aiming at the two difficulties of quantification of the defecation comfort level and low adaptability of existing toilets, this paper proposes a regression model for the quantitative relationship between joint comfort and height. And based on the model data, an adjustable lift pedal is designed. To obtain the relationship between height and optimal foot lift height, we simulated defecation posture based on the Jack software. A regression analysis was performed on the obtained data, and the results showed that the two were linearly correlated, with R2=0.9999. We calculated that the adjustable height difference required for the lift pedal is 19.583758cm. Finally, according to the data of the established model, the mechanism synthesis to the lifting pedal is carried out, and the relationship between the parameters of each component is deduced.
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