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10 November 2021 Research on urban carbon balance based on system dynamics: a case study of Tianjin city
Jiaying Li, Hongcheng Wang
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Proceedings Volume 12050, International Conference on Smart Transportation and City Engineering 2021; 120502P (2021) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2614192
Event: 2021 International Conference on Smart Transportation and City Engineering, 2021, Chongqing, China
Abstract
With the intensification of global warming, low-carbon city construction has become an inevitable trend to curb climate change and seek sustainable development. As an important low-carbon indicator, urban carbon balance has become a research hotspot of the urban ecosystems. This paper has taken Tianjin as an example, quantified the changing trend of urban carbon balance from 2002 to 2030 through the simulation of system dynamics model, and made simulation prediction for four different development scenarios. The research results showed that Tianjin's carbon balance is in a state of significant deficit growth by 2030, the growth rate of carbon emissions will be about 8.5-10.1%, and there is no significant change in carbon sinks, which can offset about 2.3%~6.4% of carbon emission. Compared with the other three scenarios, the scenario Ⅳ has the stable carbon balance and better comprehensive development benefits. The indicators and results of this model can provide a reference for the sustainable development and low-carbon planning of Tianjin.
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Jiaying Li and Hongcheng Wang "Research on urban carbon balance based on system dynamics: a case study of Tianjin city", Proc. SPIE 12050, International Conference on Smart Transportation and City Engineering 2021, 120502P (10 November 2021); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2614192
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KEYWORDS
Carbon
Ecosystems
Climate change
Systems modeling
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