Prediction of global mean temperature based on SARIMA combined model

Dongliang Li; Chengxu Chu; Huihui Gao; Chenming Yang; Xin Liu; Zhenwu Huang

doi:10.1117/12.3036492

21 July 2024 Prediction of global mean temperature based on SARIMA combined model

Dongliang Li, Chengxu Chu, Huihui Gao, Chenming Yang, Xin Liu, Zhenwu Huang

Proceedings Volume 13219, Fourth International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2024); 132193M (2024) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3036492
Event: 4th International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2024), 2024, Kaifeng, China

Abstract

With the continuous development of human society, the global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is becoming more and more serious. In order to better cope with global warming, this paper uses the SARIMA model to predict global temperature. Then, SARIMA (1,1,1) (1,1,1) model is established to forecast the temperature. It is found that the temperature in 2050 and 2100 will not reach 20℃, and the global average temperature is expected to reach 20℃ in about 2180. Through model evaluation, it is found that the R-square of SARIMA model is 0.87.

(2024) Published by SPIE. Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

Citation Download Citation

Dongliang Li, Chengxu Chu, Huihui Gao, Chenming Yang, Xin Liu, and Zhenwu Huang "Prediction of global mean temperature based on SARIMA combined model", Proc. SPIE 13219, Fourth International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2024), 132193M (21 July 2024); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3036492

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