Recent 10-year changes and the prediction of Arctic sea ice: a multivariate SARIMA approach

Jihye Ahn; Yang Won Lee

doi:10.1117/12.2029197

16 October 2013 Recent 10-year changes and the prediction of Arctic sea ice: a multivariate SARIMA approach

Jihye Ahn, Yang Won Lee

Proceedings Volume 8888, Remote Sensing of the Ocean, Sea Ice, Coastal Waters, and Large Water Regions 2013; 888803 (2013) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2029197
Event: SPIE Remote Sensing, 2013, Dresden, Germany

Abstract

The environment of Arctic is very important for the global environment and human society because it is sensitive as sea ice changes and keeps the Earth’s cool or warm climate. So we need continuous monitoring of Arctic sea ice to understand and predict the process of climate changes. Satellite remote sensing is a useful tool for monitoring sea ice. Thus, this study analyzed the time-series of Arctic sea ice changes using satellite remote sensing data with a time-series statistical method for last ten years from 2003 and predicted the sea ice extent in the near future. Especially, we used the Multivariate SARIMA(Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model that reflects multiple meteorological variables and seasonality. It was carried out to convert daily to monthly data of sea ice products because optical sensors have high spatial and temporal resolution than passive microwave sensors, but have difficulty observing the sea ice because of clouds. The result showed that minimum area of sea ice was a decrease trend during the study period and the explanatory power of the constructed Multivariate SARIMA model was about 0.71. It is thought of as a remarkable outcome because there are no studies for the Multivariate SARIMA analysis showing high explanatory power for the changes of sea ice extent. To improve the explanatory power of our model, it will be necessary as a future work to set the optimal thresholds of algorithm for estimating monthly sea ice extent and to increase the accuracy of climate factors data.

Citation Download Citation

Jihye Ahn and Yang Won Lee "Recent 10-year changes and the prediction of Arctic sea ice: a multivariate SARIMA approach", Proc. SPIE 8888, Remote Sensing of the Ocean, Sea Ice, Coastal Waters, and Large Water Regions 2013, 888803 (16 October 2013); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2029197

ACCESS THE FULL ARTICLE

INSTITUTIONAL
Select your institution to access the SPIE Digital Library.

SELECT YOUR INSTITUTION

PERSONAL
Sign in with your SPIE account to access your personal subscriptions or to use specific features such as save to my library, sign up for alerts, save searches, etc.

PERSONAL SIGN IN

No SPIE Account? Create one

PURCHASE THIS CONTENT

SUBSCRIBE TO DIGITAL LIBRARY

50 downloads per 1-year subscription

Members: $195

Non-members: $335 ADD TO CART

25 downloads per 1 - year subscription

Members: $145

Non-members: $250 ADD TO CART

PURCHASE SINGLE ARTICLE

Includes PDF, HTML & Video, when available