In order to promote the development of wind power, China has issued a subsidy policy for wind power. Due to the lack of research on the relationship between the scale of wind power development and the subsidy mechanism, the subsidy amount has become the financial burden of large wind power provinces and it is difficult to implement the subsidy, affecting the sustainable development of wind power. This paper analyses the subsidy mechanism to promote the scale development of wind power in the electricity market environment, and proposes Bass diffusion model integrating multiple subsidies. The optimal subsidy mechanism to promote the scale development of wind power is deduced by considering the total subsidy constraint and the scale development goal of wind power. The results show that the improved Bass diffusion model can quantify the impact of subsidies on the scale of wind power diffusion. Based on this, the proposed optimal comprehensive subsidy mechanism has a good role in promoting the scale development of wind power. At the same time, it can effectively control the subsidy gap, improve the subsidy efficiency, reduce the financial burden, and realize the sustainable scale development of wind power.
Under the national strategic goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality," it is necessary for each region to analyze the carbon peaking pathways according to local conditions. Based on the energy consumption data of Guangdong Province in the past ten years, this paper adopts the LMDI decomposition method to analyze the impact of four factors quantitatively on the carbon emissions of Guangdong's overall provincial electricity production, including population, economy, energy intensity, and energy structure. And further analyzed the changes in Guangdong's energy in recent years from the optimization of energy structure and energy intensity. Finally, based on the above analysis results, the development path of power decarbonization in Guangdong adapted to the goal of carbon peaking is proposed.
As the second largest fuel in the world and an important resource in China, the stability of coal supply and demand plays an important role in social development and stability, and the coal price is not only the embodiment of supply and demand, but also the embodiment of the stability of coal market. In this paper, the coal price index in China's coastal areas is taken as the research object, and based on ARCH and GARCH models, value-at-risk is used to quantify and warn the coal price risks. On the basis of expounding coal price forecasting model and risk assessment method, calculation and analysis of an example are carried out. The results show ARCH and GARCH models can effectively quantify the coal price risk and provide early warning information for relevant departments, so that relevant departments can take measures to deal with it.
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